Inflation Could Push Social Security Benefit Increase to Record Levels in 2027

Social Security payments could receive a larger-than-expected increase in 2027 if inflation continues advancing at its current pace.

New projections suggest that the next annual adjustment could rise to 4.7%, a figure higher than those seen in recent years.

Why it matters: Rising prices do not only affect the cost of gasoline, food, or housing.

They also directly influence the money Social Security beneficiaries receive each month, since the government uses inflation to calculate annual payment adjustments.

Inflation Accelerated Again and Is Affecting Retirees in the United States

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% during May. With that result, annual inflation reached 4.2%, the highest level recorded since 2023.

The figure was well above the 2% target the Federal Reserve seeks to maintain and revived concerns about the cost of living for millions of households.

Rising prices have consequences across different areas of the economy:

From interest rates to financing costs for credit cards, loans, and mortgages, consumers often quickly feel the impact of higher inflation.

Social Security COLA 2027 Could Increase – May CPI – Source: bls.gov

Social Security Adjustment Estimates for 2027 Continue to Rise

Inflation is also changing forecasts for the next Social Security adjustment.

According to Mary Johnson, an independent analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare policy, the cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 could reach 4.7%, CNBC reported. The specialist had previously projected a 4.2% increase but updated her calculations after the latest inflation data was released.

Social Security COLA 2027 Could Increase – PHOTO: Shutterstock

For its part, The Senior Citizens League maintains a slightly lower forecast:

The organization currently estimates a 3.8% COLA for 2027, just below the 3.9% projection it had the previous month.

Although several months remain before the official decision, both estimates point to a considerable increase for beneficiaries.

How Is the Social Security Increase Determined?

The Social Security Administration calculates the adjustment using inflation data from the third quarter of the year.

Each October, the agency officially announces the percentage that will be applied to benefits during the following year.

For that reason, the current figures remain estimates subject to change depending on how prices evolve over the coming months.

If inflation continues showing elevated levels during the summer, forecasts could even be revised again before the final announcement.

Social Security COLA 2027 Could Increase – PHOTO: Shutterstock

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Many Retirees Still Feel Economic Pressure

Although a higher adjustment can represent important help for millions of beneficiaries, several advocacy groups for older adults argue that recent increases have not always been enough to offset rising everyday expenses.

Some analyses cited by specialized media indicate that beneficiaries would need around $94 more per month to keep pace with current inflation.

This explains why the preliminary figures for the Social Security COLA 2027 are being closely watched by retirees as well as people receiving disability or survivor benefits.

Social Security COLA 2027 Could Increase – PHOTO: ChatGPT

For those who depend mainly on Social Security, any change in the annual adjustment can make an important difference in their monthly budget.

What’s next: The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA for 2027 in October, once it has all inflation data corresponding to the third quarter of the year.

Until then, estimates will continue to adjust as new economic reports are published.