Possible Tropical Storm Could Form Before the Official Start of Hurricane Season

Possible First Tropical Storm

Risk Before June

Rainfall Could Intensify

The tropics could begin to activate before June 1, the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Meteorologists are monitoring an area of interest that could develop in the western Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of May.

If it organizes, the system would move toward the eastern Gulf and could approach the southeastern coast of the United States.

Although no storm has formed yet, experts warn that conditions are favorable for possible development.

Rain With or Without a Tropical System

Possible First Tropical Storm Could Form Before the Official Start of Hurricane Season-Photo: Shutterstock

Rainfall is already expected this week in several areas of the south-central and southeastern United States.

“This week it will rain in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, regardless of whether tropical activity develops,” meteorologist Adam Douty explained.

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However, he added that an organized system could intensify the expected effects.

“Any tropical system that organizes in that area could strengthen slightly, increase winds, and produce locally heavy rainfall in the Florida Peninsula toward the end of the month,” he said.

Where Could the First Tropical Storm Form and Where Would It Move?

Specialists consider the formation of a tropical storm more likely than a stronger named system.

Alex DaSilva, a hurricane expert, said there is a possibility that the system could develop near the Yucatán Peninsula.

“If it forms farther west, it could end up farther north in the Gulf and head toward Florida’s northern or western Gulf coast,” he said.

Water temperatures across much of the region are above historical averages and are near 80 degrees Fahrenheit, a level favorable for cyclone formation.

Potential Impact in the Caribbean and the Atlantic

Outside the United States, parts of Cuba, the Bahamas, and even Bermuda could experience heavy rainfall and wind gusts.

Authorities recommend that people planning beach trips or maritime activities in the Gulf and Caribbean stay alert for updates.

Although the rainfall could bring relief to areas affected by drought, there is also a risk of localized flooding.

The current weather pattern has meteorologists on alert because the system’s intensity could change quickly.

2026 Season Under the Influence of El Niño

So far, no tropical storm has been recorded in 2026, even though systems occasionally form before June.

A strong El Niño pattern is expected to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic this year.

However, experts warn that this does not eliminate the possibility of impacts in the United States or the Caribbean.

The AccuWeather team projects between 11 and 16 named storms in 2026, several of which could make landfall in the United States, while possible developments in the eastern Pacific are also being monitored for early June.