Are Trump’s Tariffs Behind Inflation in the U.S.? Analysts Respond with Evidence

• Prices of imported products such as clothing, coffee, appliances, and toys increased after the new tariffs imposed by Trump came into effect in June.
• Although inflation remains moderate, some sectors are already showing signs of pressure due to import tariffs.
• A new round of tariffs is expected on August 1, which could worsen price increases for consumers in the U.S.

Prices of imported products surged in June, just as new import tariffs imposed by Trump came into effect.

According to federal data, the increases were highest in items that rely almost entirely on imports.

Toys rose six times faster than they did two months ago. Bedding recorded a 5.5% increase in just one month, while coffee, also mostly imported, went up by 2.2%.

Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on the U.S. Economy

Since Trump took office in January, inflation has remained below 3%.

• Still, June marked a 2.7% annual increase, and some analysts link this rise to tariffs imposed on foreign goods.

The Yale Budget Laboratory estimated that tariffs will cost the average household about $2,800 more per year.

The current effective tariff rate (20.6%) is the highest since 1910.

How the Increase in Imported Goods Prices Impacts

For Hispanic families, who often allocate a large part of their income to basic needs, any increase in clothing, appliances, or food prices is immediately felt.

Coffee, for example, is an essential part of the daily diet. A sustained rise in its price, combined with overall inflation, can force adjustments to the household budget.

How Far Will the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs Reach?

Analysts believe the impact of the tariffs is still moderate but could intensify.

• “We are seeing the early stages of the effects of these tariffs,” said Jason Miller, supply chain management professor at Michigan State University (ABC News).
• “Most likely, companies will not pass on the costs all at once. They will do it gradually. And this gradual process tends to drive inflation upward over a considerable period,” added Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard University (Reuters).

New tariffs will take effect on August 1, including a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on copper.

This outlook could further increase the prices of imported goods.

Inflation and Uncertainty: Mixed Signals in the Economy

Although inflation remains contained, the market is reacting to uncertainty.

Some economists, including those at the Federal Reserve, are divided on whether to cut interest rates at their next meeting.

For now, companies are gradually passing costs on to consumers.

This means the inflationary effect could build up in the coming months.