Child Tax Credit: Millions of Families Could Be Excluded Under Trump’s Reforms

• Congress has approved changes to the child tax credit.
• Millions of children could be excluded due to new income requirements.
• The law has already been signed by President Trump and will take effect in 2025.

The United States Congress has approved an increase to the child tax credit, raising it from $2,000 to $2,200 per child starting in 2025.

Although it may seem like relief, experts warn that nearly one in three children could be left out of the benefit, affecting especially low-income Hispanic families.

The change is part of the Republican mega bill “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a key piece of President Trump’s fiscal agenda.

While it offers more money per child through 2028, it imposes stricter requirements that would leave millions without the full child tax credit.

What is the child tax credit and how does it work?

The child tax credit is a federal tax benefit meant to offset the cost of raising children. In 2024, it offers up to $2,000 for each child under 17, with $1,600 refundable even for families who owe no federal income tax.

• The new law raises the amount to $2,200, but increases income requirements. According to Columbia University, about 28.3% of children (around 19.28 million) will not receive the increase because their families will not earn enough to qualify.
• Currently, a family of two adults and two children needs $36,000 a year to receive the full credit. Under the reform, they would need $41,500 in 2025, and up to $48,000 in some cases, excluding many low- and moderate-income households.

Impact on Hispanic Families in the United States

For many Latino families, this change means added financial pressure. Without access to the full credit, covering basic expenses like rent, food, or school supplies will become more difficult.

Moreover, the children excluded from the benefit are often the same ones at higher risk of losing access to subsidized healthcare or food programs. A reduction in the child tax credit can worsen food insecurity and limit access to programs such as SNAP or school meals.

Data on Who Would Be Left Out of the Child Tax Credit

The impact will not be uniform. According to Columbia’s research:

• 44% of Latino children would be excluded from the child tax credit.
• 51% of Black children and 54% of Native American or Alaska Native children would also be excluded.
• 65% of children with single mothers and 43% in large families would be affected.

Eighteen states, many in the South, would see more than 1 in 3 children without the full credit.

States like Mississippi (45%), New Mexico (44%), and Louisiana (43%) would have the highest exclusion rates.

Opinions and Warnings from Experts

“This not only limits the tax benefit but deepens existing inequalities,” said a researcher from Columbia University.

The House Ways and Means Committee, with a Republican majority, defended the reform as “historic and necessary tax relief.”

Expectations Following the Presidential Signature

President Trump signed the law on July 4, confirming it will take effect for the 2025 tax year. The new $2,200 child tax credit will be in force through 2028, without automatic adjustments for inflation.

Although the increase sounds positive, the real value of the credit continues to erode. To match the purchasing power of 2017, it would now need to be at least $2,500, meaning the real benefit remains lower.