The Start of the 2025 Hurricane Season: Calm or Storm on the Horizon?

• Start of the 2025 hurricane season.
• MJO could increase cyclonic activity.
• Forecast suggests a calm June.

As June approaches, the Atlantic basin officially begins its hurricane season.

During this month, meteorologists will closely monitor the tropics for early signs of cyclonic activity.

Although patterns observed over the past three years suggest a quiet start to the season, the big question is whether this trend will continue throughout the month.

Traditionally, the early days of June do not usually bring named storms.

Start of the 2025 Hurricane Season

A key tool in predicting tropical activity is the monitoring of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a phenomenon that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days.

This pulse affects atmospheric pressure and rainfall, directly influencing tropical weather patterns.

The MJO is divided into eight phases, and when it is in phases 8, 1, or 2, it typically leads to increased cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin.

The location and timing of the MJO in June suggest that, if the right conditions are present, there could be a favorable window for tropical cyclone development.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Impact

This window is expected to occur during the second half of the month, especially in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, according to Fox Weather.

These areas are known for being prone to storm formation due to factors such as frontal boundaries and the Central American Gyre, which creates a low-pressure zone.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s forecast indicates a potentially favorable environment for tropical development during weeks two and three of June.

Although this does not guarantee the formation of a named storm, it does suggest that tropical moisture could increase in Central America, Mexico, and the Gulf Coast.

NOAA’s Forecast for June

As June progresses, conditions could become less favorable for cyclone development as the MJO continues its eastward movement.

The formation date of the first named storm will be key in predicting the intensity of the season.

If the first storm forms before June 20, the season could be more active than usual.

In contrast, a quiet season may be in store if no storms form until early July, as was the case in 2014 when Hurricane Arthur formed on July 1, marking a relatively calm year.

Although the 2025 hurricane season should extend until November, a quiet first month could eliminate more than 16% of the total duration, making the rest of the year critical.

Meteorologists will closely monitor upcoming developments for any early signs of Andrea.

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