Republicans in Texas Face Electoral Risk as Latino Vote Collapses

• Republicans lose ground in Texas as Latino vote collapses
• Latino vote changes the landscape
• Trump complicates redistricting

Republican plans to flip five Democratic congressional seats in Texas looked like a safe bet just a few months ago. Today, they no longer do.

The low approval rating of U.S. President Donald Trump—especially among Latino voters—and strong Democratic performances in this year’s special elections have altered calculations for both parties.

Latino vote in Texas and the Republican risk

More bad news for Republicans on redistricting: Texas may not get the five seats they were expecting https://t.co/r5XbbsjI0T

— CNN en Español (@CNNEE) December 14, 2025

The new Texas map was designed with a wide safety margin, according to CNN.

Trump had won all Republican-leaning districts by 10 points or more just a year ago.

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That cushion now appears insufficient.

In five special elections held this year, Democrats outperformed Trump’s 2024 results by at least 13 points.

A similar performance in 2026 could flip three of Texas’s five new seats into the Democratic column.

Recent polls suggest the national Democratic advantage is more modest.

But signals in key districts are worrying Republican strategists.

“I can feel it on the ground,” said Democratic Representative Vicente González.

“I truly expect that we’re going to win back the majority in the next cycle and reclaim South Texas,” he said.

The Latino factor

🚨 BREAKING: A federal judge has just BLOCKED Texas from implementing their new Congressional maps, which would add 5 Republican House seats

Yet CALIFORNIA is being allowed to get away with it.

THIS JUDICIAL TYRANNY MUST END! pic.twitter.com/55Let6jtA5

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) November 18, 2025

Four of the five Democratic seats targeted by state Republicans are majority-Latino under the new map.

Congressional District 28, represented by Henry Cuéllar, is more than 90% Latino.

Trump had made significant gains among Latino voters in 2024.

According to exit polls, he won about 46%, compared to 32% in 2020.

In Texas, Trump carried the state by 14 points.

He also won every county in the Rio Grande Valley, a region historically aligned with Democrats.

However, that advantage has eroded quickly.

Trump’s approval among Latinos has fallen faster than his national average.

In Texas, it dropped from 44% in February to 32% in October, according to the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey.

The 2025 UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey detected regret among Latino voters over their 2024 vote.

If they could vote again, Texas Latinos would back Kamala Harris by 11 points.

That represents a 19-point swing compared to the margin by which they said they supported Trump in 2024—underscoring the volatility of the Latino vote in Texas.

What’s ahead

Signs of change are not limited to Texas.

In recent state elections in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, Democrats gained ground in counties with large Latino populations.

In Miami, a Democrat-backed candidate won the mayor’s race, breaking nearly 30 years of Republican control.

Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha told CNN that Latinos could return to the Democratic Party by margins of 5 to 20 points.

“I think they’re all going to come back,” he said.

Key districts and the road to 2026 elections

González said that dissatisfaction is visible in his own district, which is now more than three-quarters Latino.

He pointed to affordability, labor shortages, and the presence of immigration agents as top concerns.

“I don’t think Democrats—and especially Latinos who voted for Trump—expected this to happen,” he said.

A strong shift among Latino voters could also put Congressional District 15 at risk.

That district is held by Republican Monica De La Cruz.

Although it voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024, the margin was just two points in 2020.

In 2018, Beto O’Rourke won the district by 11 points.

Under the new map, De La Cruz’s margins change very little—leaving the Latino vote in Texas as a decisive factor heading into 2026.