What Will Happen to Oil Prices If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz?

• Oil prices have already risen 10% due to fears of disruption since the conflict began.
• Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
• A closure could push oil to $100 per barrel and hit Americans’ wallets.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, is at risk. If Iran blocks it in retaliation for recent bombings, crude oil prices could surge, affecting everything from gasoline to the cost of living in the U.S.

The Strait of Hormuz in Context

This maritime channel, located between Iran and Oman, is crucial for global oil trade. Every day, about 20 million barrels pass through it—one-fifth of global consumption.

OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq export most of their oil through this route. The U.S. Fifth Fleet patrols the area to ensure it remains open, but tensions have escalated after recent strikes on Iranian facilities.

On Sunday night, following U.S. attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Brent crude surpassed $80 per barrel—its highest price since January, according to Refinitiv. Before the conflict, oil had remained between $60 and $75 since August 2024.

However, on Monday, European and U.S. markets reacted to Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq—with no reported casualties—by dropping Brent and WTI prices over 6%, to below $71 per barrel.

What Will Happen to Oil Prices If Iran Closes the Strait?

According to The Guardian, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Sunday that the Trump-ordered bombings “will not go unanswered.”

He stated that the action “will have lasting consequences for the United States.” The future of oil prices now depends on whether Iran actually closes the strait—an action that could trigger immediate and global economic consequences.

• More expensive gasoline: If crude rises, so will prices at the pump. A sudden spike could push gas above $4 per gallon, especially in states like California, Nevada, and New York.
• Higher inflation: Transportation, food, everyday products—anything that relies on oil—will become more expensive. This would drive up the cost of living, just as many Hispanic families are still grappling with high prices after the pandemic and post-COVID inflation.

Brent Crude Forecast: What Energy Market Experts Are Saying

“A disruption in Hormuz could easily push oil to $100 per barrel,” said Rob Thummel, manager at Tortoise Capital, to CNN. That would be the highest price in three years, since the sanctions on Russia in 2022.

“Iran has more to lose than gain by closing the Strait,” said Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights.

• Both agree: the threat is real, but it’s also a very risky move for Tehran—even with partial support from neighboring countries.

What You Can Do If This Happens

• Keep your gas tank full if prices in your area are still stable.
• Reduce car use if possible: consider carpooling, public transport, or working remotely.
• Track your spending: A flexible budget helps you handle unexpected increases.
• Watch gas prices: Apps like GasBuddy or AAA provide real-time updates on gas prices.

In summary: If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to levels not seen in years. For millions of Latinos in the U.S., that means more expensive gas, a higher cost of living… and tougher decisions with every dollar.