Remittances to Mexico Could Fall 5.8% in 2025 Due to Lower Migration to the U.S., Says BBVA

• Remittances to Mexico could fall 5.8% in 2025
• Lack of migrants reduces money transfers
• Mexico could lose $3.7 billion

According to EFE news agency, remittances sent to Mexico could fall by 5.8% in 2025, based on projections from BBVA.

This would mean a $3.7 billion drop compared to 2024.

The total amount is expected to reach $61 billion by the end of the year.

The figure was released in the Mexico Migration and Remittances Yearbook 2025.

Fewer Migrants in the US Affect Income

#PressConference: Remittances to Mexico could fall 5.8% in 2025, closing at $61 billion. The decrease is due to fewer new migrants entering the U.S. labor force. #AnuarioMigracionyRemesas pic.twitter.com/qlT1Wg5sPk

— BBVA México Prensa (@BBVAPrensa_mx) August 6, 2025

The report was presented by BBVA México and the National Population Council (CONAPO).

Carlos Serrano Herrera, BBVA México’s chief economist, analyzed the situation.

He explained that the main reason for the drop is not Donald Trump’s migration policy.

The larger factor, Serrano said, is the decline in new migrants entering the US workforce.

Stagnation in Remittances to Mexico

Fewer migrants entering the labor market in the US directly reduces the volume of remittances sent home.

This is compounded by the strength of the peso against the dollar this year.

Restrictive migration policies from the Republican administration also play a smaller role.

During the first half of 2025, remittances from the US to Mexico fell by 5.6%.

Mexico Compared to Other Latin American Economies

This trend has been building for nearly two years, according to the report.

Remittances have been unstable for 20 months — longer than Trump’s current electoral period.

Serrano noted that Mexico’s net migration rate has been “close to zero.”

This means there are no significant new flows of migrants to send money back home.

Impact of the Decline in Remittances

📉 The slowdown in remittance inflows is due to several factors: weakness in the U.S. labor market, fewer Mexican migrants entering U.S. territory, and the exchange rate, according to experts

➡️ https://t.co/oonv6cRbMv pic.twitter.com/AgHkLB60FS

— El Financiero (@ElFinanciero_Mx) August 6, 2025

Therefore, it is natural for the volume of remittances to stagnate or decline.

The analysis compared Mexico’s situation with that of other Latin American countries.

In nations such as Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, remittances have grown in 2025.

Honduras is up 25.3%, Guatemala 18.1%, and El Salvador 12.9%.

Remittances to Mexico affect families

This indicates that Trump’s policies have not had a generalized regional effect.

Serrano stressed that the decline in Mexico is not “catastrophic” at the macroeconomic level.

However, it will have negative effects on certain families that are highly dependent on remittances.

Some of these families receive as much as 30.5% of their income via remittances.

Deportations and US migration policy

This percentage is equivalent to the average labor income of those who do not receive help from abroad.

Nationally, remittances account for 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product.

Despite the outlook, the economist believes a tax on remittances would not have a major impact.

It could even encourage formal transfers through bank accounts in the US.

Migration halted and the border sealed

This would make flows safer and more traceable.

However, for remittances to grow again, a different kind of structural change would be required.

“What would need to happen is for the U.S. labor market to strengthen,” Serrano noted.

But under the current government, “the market is weakening,” he warned.

Border and the Darién crossings are down

Serrano also addressed recent deportations of undocumented immigrants in the US.

In June 2025, there were 32,000 deportations, a figure he described as “concerning.”

Even so, compared to the 11 million undocumented migrants, it is not a massive number.

At that pace, deportations would reach about 384,000 a year—close to the average during the Obama era.

ICE deports more within the country

These figures surpass those recorded under Joe Biden’s term.

They are also higher than in Trump’s first term, but they are not unprecedented.

A key difference is that today deportations are internal and not at the border.

ICE is focusing on people already integrated in the US: students, workers, families.

Remittances to Mexico: uncertain future

Previously, most detainees were intercepted at the border.

Currently, that border is practically sealed, the expert said.

In June there were only 6,000 apprehensions, compared to more than 250,000 in December 2023.

This is due to strengthened bilateral agreements between Mexico and the US.