Tax Refund Check Could Be $1,000 Higher in 2026: What You Need to Know

The average tax refund check would rise by about $1,000 in 2026.

This matters because millions rely on these payments to balance their finances.

The increase comes from new tax exemptions that will apply to the 2025 tax year.

A new financial analysis projects that taxpayers will receive significantly higher refunds when they file their taxes in 2026.

The tax changes signed by President Donald Trump will allow payments to rise by roughly $1,000 per person thanks to new retroactive exemptions.

Why the Tax Refund Check Will Increase

According to IRS data, the average refund in 2025 was $3,151.

With the tax changes, the amount could rise to $4,151 per taxpayer, according to an analysis by Piper Sandler referenced in a CBS News report.

The increase is explained by measures such as eliminating taxes on overtime hours and tips, as well as raising the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 — all contributing to the tax refund increase 2026.

Piper Sandler also estimated that total refunds would rise by around $90 billion.

Many people have not yet adjusted their withholdings, which increases the likelihood of receiving a larger check when they file their 2026 tax return.

The biggest benefits will go to households earning between $60,000 and $400,000.

Lower-income earners may receive less due to eligibility rules for expanded deductions.

What This Means for the Latino Community

For millions of Hispanic families, a higher tax refund check represents real relief: extra money to cover debts, overdue bills, car repairs, or even medical expenses.

With inflation pressuring household budgets, an unexpected boost can make a meaningful difference.

However, it’s important for Latino taxpayers to understand that the impact will not be the same for everyone.

Those who do not qualify for expanded deductions may receive a smaller increase.

Reviewing withholdings and planning ahead can help avoid surprises during the next tax return season — especially in the context of the anticipated tax refund increase 2026.

What Experts Say About Tax Refunds

Don Schneider of Piper Sandler explained:

“When people file their tax returns, they will be surprised by the substantial refunds.”

He also noted that the overall increase will be significantly larger than in a typical year.

What Comes Next

Individual 2025 tax returns will be filed in early 2026, and refunds will arrive within 21 days for most taxpayers.

For the Latino community, the key is staying informed, reviewing withholdings ahead of time, and understanding how the tax changes could affect the final refund amount — especially given the projected tax refund increase in 2026.