Tax Refund Checks Could Increase by Up to $1,000 in 2026

Average tax refund check could increase by nearly $1,000 in 2026

Millions of families depend on these payments to manage expenses

The change stems from new tax exemptions applied to the 2025 tax year

A new financial analysis suggests that tax refund checks could be significantly higher in 2026.

For many taxpayers, the increase could be close to an additional $1,000 per person.

The adjustment is linked to tax changes that have already been signed into law. These changes will affect how 2025 taxes are calculated and will have a direct impact when returns are filed next year.

Why Tax Refund Checks Could Increase

According to data from the Internal Revenue Service, the average tax refund in 2025 was $3,151. With the new tax changes, that amount could rise to approximately $4,151 per taxpayer.

BREAKING

Trump just announced that next year will bring the LARGEST TAX REFUNDS IN HISTORY.
In addition, he announced a $1,776 check for U.S. soldiers before Christmas pic.twitter.com/AridbcQ0WQ

— Catalina Castro (@techconcatalina) December 18, 2025

An analysis by the firm Piper Sandler, cited by CBS News, indicates that the increase is driven by a combination of retroactive tax exemptions.

These include the elimination of taxes on overtime pay and tips, as well as an increase in the SALT deduction cap, which rose from $10,000 to $40,000.

Together, these tax changes could result in an estimated $90 billion increase in refunds nationwide.

Additionally, many workers have not yet adjusted their payroll withholdings, increasing the likelihood of receiving a larger check when filing taxes in 2026.

Who Would Benefit the Most From Higher Refunds

Households earning between $60,000 and $400,000 per year are expected to see the greatest benefit from the tax changes. Within this income range, the expanded deductions have the strongest effect on reducing final tax liability.

By contrast, lower-income individuals may see a smaller increase. This is because not everyone qualifies for the expanded deductions or because their tax burden is already relatively low.

As a result, the impact will vary depending on income level, type of employment, and available deductions.

What This Means for the Latino Community

For millions of Latino families in the United States, a higher tax refund check represents tangible financial relief. That extra money is often used to pay down debt, cover overdue rent, repair vehicles, or handle accumulated medical expenses.

| The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, predicted that Americans will receive ‘massive’ refund checks in the next tax season thanks to tax cuts from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. pic.twitter.com/eJfhbICOT7

— La Derecha Diario Estados Unidos (@DerechaDiarioUS) December 28, 2025

In a period marked by inflation and rising costs, an unexpected increase can make a meaningful difference in household stability. Still, not all Latino families will experience the same level of benefit.

Those who do not qualify for the expanded deductions or who earn lower incomes may see a smaller increase. Reviewing payroll withholdings and planning ahead can help avoid surprises during tax season.

What Analysts Are Saying About the 2026 Tax Season

Don Schneider, an analyst at Piper Sandler, said many taxpayers will be surprised when they file their returns.

“When people file their tax returns, they’re going to be surprised by how large the refunds are,” he said.

He added that the total increase in refunds will be much higher than in a typical tax year due to the combined effect of the new exemptions.

What Comes Next

Tax returns for the 2025 fiscal year will be filed in early 2026. In most cases, refunds are issued within 21 days of filing.

For the Latino community, staying informed, reviewing withholdings, and understanding how the new tax rules apply will be key to maximizing the final amount of their tax refund checks in 2026.