Tropical Storm Erin Set to Become Hurricane with Dangerous Surf and Heavy Rain in the Caribbean

• Erin will become a hurricane
• Heavy surf and rain
• Risk in the western Atlantic

Tropical Storm Erin continues to intensify in the Atlantic and, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), could reach hurricane status by Friday.

Although its current path is trending northward, moving away from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, its indirect effects could still be felt in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Erin Advances with Growing Strength

Latest from the NHC

In its most recent bulletin, the NHC stated:

“The northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico will experience locally heavy rain, strong surf, rip currents, and tropical storm–force winds” over the weekend, as Erin’s core remains south of these areas.

Tropical storm Erin is currently located about 1,595 km east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 28 km/h, with maximum sustained winds near 85 km/h.

Gradual strengthening is expected Thursday, with more significant intensification Friday and Saturday.

Factors That Could Boost Its Strength

Experts say Erin’s development will partly depend on the strength and position of the Bermuda High, a broad area of high pressure that acts as a “steering wheel” for tropical systems.

Once Erin reaches the western Atlantic, it could encounter much warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures, serving as “fuel” for intensification.

Although these temperatures are not at the record levels of 2023 and 2024, they remain significantly higher than they would be without warming caused by fossil fuel pollution.

This could allow Erin to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by late Saturday.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Context

Erin would be the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, which began in June and has already seen storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter.

None of those reached hurricane strength and dissipated before doing so.

August traditionally marks the start of the most active period of the season, which lasts until mid-October.

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Historically, the first hurricane forms around August 11, although in recent years they have appeared earlier. In 2024, by this date, Beryl, Debby, and soon Ernesto had already formed.

The NOAA maintains its forecast for an “above-normal” season, with 13 to 18 tropical storms and up to nine hurricanes, of which two to five could be “major.”

Storm Preparedness Tips

• Stay informed with official reports from the NHC and NOAA.
• Store drinking water and nonperishable food.
• Secure windows, doors, and loose objects.
• Keep flashlights, batteries, and a first-aid kit ready.
• If you live in a coastal area, follow evacuation orders and stay away from the sea.

Although tropical storm Erin is expected to move away from the Caribbean, monitoring remains essential: the combination of warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions could drive rapid development.

The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents in the western Atlantic will increase next week, affecting even areas far from its central path.

Do you think current coastal preparedness is enough to face increasingly intense hurricanes?

SOURCE: EFE / CNN